NKS Monthly

This Crazy Real Estate Market
February 28th, 2008 10:03 AM

This Crazy Real Estate Market – many unfortunate situations, but many opportunities

 

I don’t know about you, but I have never experienced such uncertainty in the real estate market.  Unfortunately, I am talking to at least one person a week that is on the verge of losing their home.   In many situations, people bought homes that they should not have or refinanced and got a very risky loan.  As you know I have been in the mortgage business for over 15 years.  I can remember many times where I advised the client not to purchase a home and they went elsewhere and did it from another mortgage lender.   I really wish that those people would have listened to me.  Many of them are in trouble today.  For many it was gambling with high stakes and now they have to pay the price. The good news is that for some families we are figuring a way for them to keep their home. 

 

The root cause of this is Wall Street creating a huge demand for these sub-prime loans.  Many of these loans should not have been done.   At the time, we were all reaping the benefit because home prices were increasing tremendously, but now we have a dose of reality. 

 

The chart bellow tracks the amount of loans that are scheduled to reset (adjust), since January of 2007 to December of 2009.  THIS CHART IS REALLY SCARY.  It shows that many more people are going to have significant increases in their mortgage payments now or very soon.  Most likely these people will not be able to afford it and they are going to lose their home.  Everywhere I turn I am hearing on the news or reading in the paper about the problems in the real estate market.   Right now we are in the 4th inning of this problem.   

Notice the lines that are orange.  That is what I want us to focus on.  If you look at the chart there was $20-$50 billion dollars of sub-prime mortgage loans that their interest rates were going to change each month last year.  This year it is even worse.  The number is as high as $100 billion in March of this year. 

 

Let me give you an example of some clients I recently did a consultation for.  They had a 2 year fixed loan with a 2 year prepayment penalty.  Their interest rate was 5.75% interest only with a payment of $1418.33 per month.  Now their payment is changing March 1st to a principle and interest payment of $2079.82 per month and in six months it is scheduled to change again to $2265.51 per month.  These are huge changes.  That is a $661.49 per month change, that will go to a $847.18 per month change.  I know that would dramatically affect my family’s budget.  The worst part about it is that they are still not going to be in a fixed rate.  Now, I might have a way to put them in a better situation, because they still have a little equity.  Well, they are lucky.  Many people owe 10-50k more on their home and are faced with a very difficult situation.

 

 I personally do not have the confidence that the government will come up with a viable solution to band aid this problem.  Most likely many people will be losing there homes to foreclosure.  The purpose of this letter is to one, educate you a little, and secondly tell you about an opportunity I see coming up in the near future.

 

The opportunity I see is to buy real estate.  I think this is going to be one of the biggest opportunities to create wealth in the next 10 years.   Many people are not going to be able to afford their home and will lose them to foreclosure.  Currently the banks are so behind in foreclosing on people, I am hearing that it is taking at least 6 months to do.  That means that for about the next 12-18 months there is going to be a huge opportunity to purchase homes at very very low prices.  I think we are going to be able to purchase rental property, put 20% down with a 30 year fixed rate and have your renter cover your entire rent payment.  These properties will CASH FLOW.  I am really excited about the opportunity. 

 

I am currently in the process of purchasing an investment property today, so you do not have to wait until next year.  By the summer I will be teaching a class on buying investment property.  I hope that you understand a little more about what is happening in the real estate market and you see this opportunity we have in front of us.  Please do not hesitate to call me or email me with any questions or comments.  If purchasing rental property is something you are interested in and you would like to attend the class, you can email Megan at megan@teamnks.com. 

 

 

Update on Economic Stimulus Law

By David Olson

February 18, 2008

 

President Bush signed the “Economic Stimulus Act of 2008” into law on February 13.  In it, the Secretary of HUD must establish new conforming mortgage loan limits not later than 30 days after its enactment, which is March 14.  I learned from David Rodderer, an analyst at HUD, that the list of MSA’s used to set the new conforming limits is his list created for the Federal Housing Finance Board.  There are 30 MSA’s whose median home price is greater than $333,600.  The current conforming limit is $417,000.  Dividing that limit by 125% is $333,600.  The MSA’s are San Jose (CA), San Francisco (CA), Santa Cruz (CA), Los Angeles (CA), Oxnard (CA), San Luis Obispo (CA), Salinas (CA),  Napa (CA), San Diego (CA), Santa Rosa (CA), Washington (DC), Santa Barbara (CA), Bridgeport (CT), New York (NY), Vallejo(CA), Honolulu (HI), Ocean City (NJ), Barnstable (MA), Seattle (WA), Baltimore (MD), Riverside (CA), Stockton (CA), Naples (FL), Atlantic City (NJ), Boston (MA), Bend (OR), Sacramento (CA), Charlottesville (VA), Poughkeepsie (NY), and Trenton (NJ).  You will note that of these 30 cities, 15 are in California.  Ten of the rest are in the BosWash corridor.  That leaves only five cities in other parts of the country—Honolulu (HI), Seattle (WA), Naples (FL), Bend (OR), and Charlottesville (VA).  So most of the country (about 80%) is unaffected by this increase in mortgage limits.  In these cities, the new mortgage limit is calculated at 125% of the median housing price established in December 2007.  So, for example, in Washington (DC), the median home price was $475,000.  The new conforming mortgage limit will be $594,000.  But the maximum amount for any city is $729,750.  Only the top three cities are impacted by that maximum—San Jose, San Francisco, and Santa Cruz. 

 

Assuming this is the final list established by the HUD Secretary, then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to decide whether they want to buy these larger loans.  Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have publicly stated they want to buy these loans.  According to conversations with some mortgage bankers, it may take as long as two months to program their computers to get this new set of limits into their system.  That suggests lenders won’t be able to originate these loans until almost July 1.  The new law is valid only until December 31, 2008.  That means we will get a maximum of six months of stimulus from the portion of the bill lifting loan limits.

 

However, on February 15, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) announced they would not permit these large loans into their TBA pools.  They would be restricted to special pools under unique pool codes on a “specified pool” basis or inclusion in REMIC transactions.  These pools wouldn’t trade as favorably as TBA pools and there might be no pricing advantage at all.  Currently jumbos trade at around 100 bp higher than conforming pools.  That suggests the higher loan limits from the Economic Stimulus Law would have no impact at all other than to cause a lot of reprogramming by the mortgage lenders.  Earlier we thought this bill would increase mortgage originations by $500 billion from what it would have been without the bill.  Now we think the increased originations will not exceed $100 billion.

 

Why Fed Rate Cuts Do Not Equal Lower Mortgage Rates
By Barry Habib,
CEO

Last Updated: February 28, 2008

The Federal Reserve has been on a rate cutting spree once more. Many mortgage applicants are calling their mortgage representative and expecting a lower interest rate. Others who have been waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during the recent five Fed rate cuts. This is difficult to explain to consumers who have watched a 2.25% reduction by the Fed with very little benefit in mortgage rates.

Is a Fed rate cut really good news for mortgage rates? The facts may be surprising. The Fed can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates.  A mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years while a rate set by the Fed can change from one day to another.

It is often said history repeats itself. And if history is any teacher, we can learn from what happened to mortgage rates the last time the Federal Reserve was in a rate-cutting cycle.

The last time the Fed was in a lengthy rate cutting cycle was back in 2001 from January 3, 2001 to December 11, 2001. In the span of 11 months, they cut the Fed Funds rate 11 times with eight of those cuts by 50bp. This resulted in a total of 475bp or 4.75% in short-term interest rate cuts taking the Fed Funds Rate from 6.00% down to 1.75%. Now most uninformed people would naturally think because the Fed cut rates by so much during this time that mortgage rates would follow suit and trend lower as well. Not so.  Mortgage rates actually moved higher during this time of significant rate cuts because inflation, the arch enemy of bonds, gradually rose.

Now let’s take a look at what happened with the Fed’s most recent cutting cycle, the first since 2001. On September 18, 2007 the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 50bp. The mortgage bond market briefly enjoyed a “knee-jerk” reaction to the Fed move by closing higher that day, but lost 140bp over the following two sessions. Then on October 31, 2007 the Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25bp. The mortgage bond market responded by losing 78bp over the following five trading days. On December 11, 2007 the Fed once again lowered rates by 25bp and the mortgage bond market lost 88bp in the next three days. So far this year, the Fed delivered a surprise 75bp rate cut on January 22, 2008 and mortgage bonds lost a whopping 144bp in just 2 days. Eight days later and as widely expected, the Fed cut rates by 50bp. Within 13 days from that 50bp cut, mortgage bonds lost 269bp.

Please refer to the Table below.

Fed Rate Cut Date

Rate Cut Size

MBS Pricing Change

View Chart

09/18/2007

50bp

-140bp in 2 days

View Chart

10/31/2007

25bp

-78bp in 5 days

View Chart

12/11/2007

25bp

-88bp in 3 days

View Chart

01/22/2008

75bp

-144bp in 2 days

View Chart

01/30/2008

50bp

-269bp in 13 days

View Chart

 

 

 

Community

Zip code

Sales

% Chg

Median price

% Chg

High price

Median $ per sq.ft.

% Chg

SACRAMENTO COUNTY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carmichael

95608

528

-35.4%

$364,000

-27.6%

$1,600,000

$229

-29.2%

Citrus Heights

95610

370

-40.3%

$310,000

-30.0%

$629,000

$204

-32.9%

Citrus Heights

95621

477

-33.5%

$273,000

-32.7%

$570,000

$201

-36.3%

Elk Grove

95624

587

-51.2%

$370,000

-32.8%

$1,500,000

$195

-35.4%

Elverta

95626

48

-63.8%

$260,000

-37.0%

$700,000

$222

-35.4%

Fair Oaks

95628

431

-21.8%

$406,750

-19.2%

$1,300,000

$230

-29.2%

Folsom

95630

815

-28.8%

$457,500

-23.5%

$1,350,000

$237

-27.0%

Galt

95632

270

-40.5%

$315,500

-31.2%

$2,000,000

$208

-36.8%

Herald

95638

10

-62.3%

$317,000

-65.1%

$737,000

$325

-29.8%

Isleton

95641

6

-79.6%

$252,500

-42.3%

$1,525,000

$269

-29.5%

North Highlands

95660

274

-59.0%

$201,000

-44.4%

$763,000

$186

-45.1%

Orangevale

95662

309

-46.1%

$329,000

-27.4%

$1,240,000

$229

-30.5%

Rancho Cordova

95670

415

-44.2%

$325,000

-23.2%

$950,000

$209

-33.4%

Rio Linda

95673

157

-57.0%

$260,000

-33.1%

$910,000

$201

-42.0%

Sloughhouse

95683

101

-40.6%

$493,500

-29.9%

$1,030,000

$236

-25.2%

Wilton

95693

52

-26.8%

$622,500

-33.0%

$1,395,000

$309

-35.4%

Elk Grove

95757

401

-41.0%

$405,000

-37.7%

$1,060,000

$181

-35.7%

Elk Grove

95758

717

-41.8%

$338,250

-32.1%

$1,175,000

$203

-35.9%

Sacramento

95814

26

-44.6%

$389,500

-9.1%

$1,155,000

$307

-25.3%

Sacramento

95815

204

-49.5%

$213,000

-34.6%

$605,000

$191

-43.7%

Sacramento

95816

144

-22.6%

$411,500

-23.1%

$1,500,000

$356

-19.6%

Sacramento

95817

190

-49.1%

$255,000

-28.1%

$680,000

$241

-27.0%

Sacramento

95818

283

-17.0%

$450,000

-21.3%

$1,575,000

$338

-22.3%

Sacramento

95819

280

-29.5%

$429,000

-20.2%

$1,695,000

$354

-23.2%

Sacramento

95820

400

-55.4%

$237,000

-30.4%

$825,000

$216

-36.5%

Sacramento

95821

287

-33.6%

$315,000

-26.2%

$1,305,000

$237

-27.2%

Sacramento

95822

403

-50.1%

$275,000

-27.1%

$999,500

$218

-31.2%

Sacramento

95823

451

-64.8%

$260,000

-37.5%

$805,000

$186

-39.5%

Sacramento

95824

202

-59.2%

$215,000

-36.1%

$479,000

$187

-43.3%

Sacramento

95825

171

-30.7%

$329,750

-24.1%

$695,000

$225

-29.3%

Sacramento

95826

328

-45.3%

$295,000

-30.5%

$867,500

$207

-33.9%

Sacramento

95827

159

-52.5%

$290,000

-29.6%

$950,000

$202

-32.9%

Sacramento

95828

483

-54.4%

$269,500

-36.5%

$775,000

$185

-38.3%

Sacramento

95829

233

-51.9%

$340,000

-31.6%

$2,450,000

$207

-33.0%

Sacramento

95831

325

-32.4%

$375,000

-21.4%

$906,000

$221

-28.4%

Sacramento

95832

93

-61.1%

$260,000

-36.1%

$600,000

$175

-43.0%

Sacramento

95833

299

-49.8%

$299,000

-30.9%

$1,125,000

$200

-36.9%

Sacramento

95834

168

-54.7%

$354,500

-30.2%

$3,675,000

$197

-37.7%

Sacramento

95835

415

-33.4%

$386,000

-34.9%

$985,000

$195

-33.0%

Sacramento

95837

1

-89.9%

$1,026,000

6.3%

$1,026,000

$214

-82.3%

Sacramento

95838

355

-52.5%

$223,000

-41.9%

$680,000

$185

-42.8%

Sacramento

95841

126

-50.9%

$290,000

-32.1%

$1,000,000

$196

-32.2%

Sacramento

95842

252

-52.7%

$250,000

-35.5%

$420,000

$201

-37.9%

Antelope

95843

536

-36.3%

$308,000

-33.8%

$780,000

$189

-36.0%

Sacramento

95864

303

-20.2%

$500,000

-13.5%

$3,275,000

$288

-23.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SURROUNDING AREAS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cool

95614

38

-56.4%

$350,000

-31.3%

$600,000

$229

-23.3%

Diamond Springs

95619

35

-37.1%

$295,250

-33.0%

$545,000

$238

-27.7%

El Dorado

95623

28

-49.8%

$372,500

-10.2%

$650,000

$244

-30.1%

Garden Valley

95633

16

-0.6%

$320,000

-29.2%

$520,000

$259

-17.9%

Georgetown

95634

13

47.6%

$300,000

-16.4%

$1,325,000

$193

-47.0%

Grizzly Flats

95636

28

-39.2%

$258,500

-21.3%

$345,000

$175

-37.2%

Placerville

95667

237

-37.7%

$342,000

-29.5%

$870,000

$238

-28.1%

Rescue

95672

33

-28.1%

$455,000

-25.0%

$676,000

$213

-26.7%

Shingle Springs

95682

266

-38.9%

$400,000

-29.9%

$975,000

$220

-29.0%

Somerset

95684

12

-5.8%

$364,000

-8.5%

$515,000

$202

-26.0%

Camino

95709

38

-37.3%

$340,000

-25.6%

$1,100,000

$222

-32.7%

Kyburz

95720

1

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Pollock Pines

95726

142

-25.6%

$299,500

-25.2%

$830,000

$213

-30.7%

El Dorado Hills

95762

549

-19.9%

$580,000

-27.6%

$2,350,000

$222

-29.4%

South Lake Tahoe

96150

522

-32.0%

$425,000

-25.4%

$13,750,000

$312

-29.2%

Soda Springs

95728

4

-34.9%

$405,000

-40.4%

$850,000

$271

-49.3%

Truckee

96161

427

-27.9%

$590,000

-22.9%

$5,050,000

$350

-26.7%

Auburn

95602

192

-17.9%

$437,000

-26.7%

$1,820,000

$260

-23.7%

Auburn

95603

259

-39.4%

$399,000

-28.2%

$1,350,000

$250

-25.9%

Foresthill

95631

51

-28.5%

$378,500

-20.5%

$1,160,000

$249

-24.8%

Lincoln

95648

634

-29.7%

$400,000

-25.7%

$1,650,000

$235

-27.6%

Loomis

95650

157

-25.2%

$462,500

-33.1%

$1,950,000

$272

-29.1%

Newcastle

95658

66

12.0%

$615,750

-14.4%

$1,495,000

$267

-35.3%

Roseville

95661

309

-32.3%

$425,000

-24.0%

$1,150,000

$223

-29.0%

Penryn

95663

34

21.1%

$600,000

-20.8%

$1,250,000

$309

-16.7%

Rocklin

95677

236

-39.3%

$382,000

-27.8%

$4,390,000

$221

-29.7%

Roseville

95678

424

-37.8%

$348,000

-29.6%

$875,000

$211

-35.0%

Alta

95701

14

165.1%

$301,500

-7.5%

$665,000

$259

-23.4%

Colfax

95713

95

-26.1%

$350,000

-28.4%

$1,200,000

$229

-29.4%

Emigrant Gap

95715

1

-14.9%

$450,000

67.2%

$450,000

$268

0.0%

Meadow Vista

95722

47

-3.0%

$457,500

-22.5%

$2,575,000

$277

-29.1%

Weimar

95736

2

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Granite Bay

95746

310

-20.4%

$775,000

-19.6%

$4,100,000

$275

-24.7%

Roseville

95747

663

-19.5%

$409,000

-27.8%

$1,200,000

$225

-28.1%

Rocklin

95765

378

-40.6%

$427,000

-29.7%

$1,940,000

$213

-28.7%

Carnelian Bay

96140

32

418.4%

$618,500

-31.6%

$12,500,000

$404

-5.0%

Homewood

96141

12

285.1%

$675,000

26.4%

$7,000,000

$469

10.7%

Tahoma

96142

8

285.1%

$426,500

-29.8%

$2,350,000

$389

17.8%

Kings Beach

96143

34

97.6%

$517,500

-18.9%

$2,700,000

$390

-26.2%

Tahoe City

96145

50

301.8%

$875,000

-13.9%

$5,782,000

$493

-25.1%

Olympic Valley

96146

33

28.6%

$870,000

-10.0%

$3,315,000

$531

1.3%

Tahoe Vista

96148

12

n/a

$650,000

-25.9%

$1,204,000

$382

n/a

Broderick

95605

84

-54.0%

$280,750

-23.6%

$999,000

n/a

n/a

Davis

95616

247

-22.7%

$535,000

-24.9%

$1,485,000

n/a

n/a

El Macero

95618

250

-12.9%

$542,500

-27.2%

$1,800,000

n/a

n/a

Esparto

95627

12

-89.4%

$379,000

-9.4%

$485,000

n/a

n/a

West Sacramento

95691

284

-39.8%

$340,000

-31.6%

$780,000

n/a

n/a

Winters

95694

57

-45.4%

$378,000

-29.9%

$948,500

$400

-15.3%

Woodland

95695

253

-39.6%

$350,000

-24.2%

$1,200,000

n/a

n/a

Woodland

95776

136

-49.2%

$362,000

-30.9%

$930,000

n/a

n/a


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Sales Statistics
for
SACRAMENTO County CA

Realist's most recent recording date for this county is 02/13/2008

 

 Single Family Residence

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

1,114

$304,750 

 Dec 2006

1,543

$365,000 

 Nov 2007

1,142

$300,000 

 Nov 2006

1,562

$368,500 

 2007 YTD

14,849

$336,000 

 2006

21,003

$380,000 

 

 Condominium

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

104

$186,000 

 Dec 2006

149

$251,000 

 Nov 2007

83

$225,000 

 Nov 2006

115

$267,000 

 2007 YTD

1,182

$230,000 

 2006

1,743

$264,000 

 

Sales Statistics
for
PLACER County CA

Realist's most recent recording date for this county is 02/13/2008

 

 Single Family Residence

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

489

$380,000 

 Dec 2006

595

$450,000 

 Nov 2007

421

$395,000 

 Nov 2006

543

$450,000 

 2007 YTD

6,020

$430,750 

 2006

7,029

$469,500 

 

 Condominium

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

58

$236,000 

 Dec 2006

75

$318,000 

 Nov 2007

45

$226,000 

 Nov 2006

44

$325,250 

 2007 YTD

581

$279,000 

 2006

613

$325,000 

 

 

Sales Statistics
for
EL DORADO County CA

Realist's most recent recording date for this county is 02/11/2008

 

 Single Family Residence

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

167

$450,000 

 Dec 2006

240

$454,000 

 Nov 2007

155

$450,000 

 Nov 2006

219

$460,000 

 2007 YTD

2,455

$463,000 

 2006

2,983

$494,500 

 

 Condominium

 Time Period

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price 

 Dec 2007

2

$315,000 

 Dec 2006

1

$220,000 

 Nov 2007

-

$- 

 Nov 2006

-

$- 

 2007 YTD

18

$452,500 

 2006

37

$437,500 

 

 


Posted by Neal Smith on February 28th, 2008 10:03 AMPost a Comment (0)

February - Valentine's Day!
February 21st, 2008 1:23 PM

Valentine’s Day is the day to celebrate those you love, but where did the day originate from?  Many experts say that it originated from Saint Valentine, a Roman who was martyred for refusing to give up Christianity.  He died February 14, 269 A.D.  Legend also says that St. Valentine left a farewell note for the jailer’s daughter, who had become his friend, and signed it, “From Your Valentine”.  Other experts say that Saint Valentine was a man who served as a priest at the temple during the reign of Emperor Claudius.  Claudius then had Valentine jailed for defying him in 496 A.D.  Pope Gelasius set aside February 14th to honor St. Valentine. 

 

Gradually February 14th became the date for exchanging love messages and St. Valentine became the patron saint of lovers.  The date was marked by sending poems and simple gifts such as flowers.  In the 1800’s the first Valentine’s Day cards were introduced in the U.S. and now the date has become very commercialized.    

 

So, what are you planning for Valentine's Day?  Do you need some ideas to make this Valentine's Day a day to remember?  Why not skip dinner out and have a picnic in your own living room.  Spread out a blanket and light some candles.  Buy some wine, cheese and bread and enjoy a romantic night in.  How about a scavenger hunt for your loved one?  Have each clue eventually lead to a small gift or even dessert.  For those of you with great memories try recreating your first date together.  Want to get your heartbeat going?  Partake in a physical activity like ice skating or go on a hike.  You don’t have to go far to go wine-tasting, tour at your local wineries.  Whatever you end up doing this Valentine’s Day remember it’s a day to celebrate those you love.

 

Wishing you and yours a wonderful Valentine's Day!  

 

 


Posted by Neal Smith on February 21st, 2008 1:23 PMPost a Comment (0)

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